PA Daily | Fed's Kashkari Expects One More Rate Hike This Year; OpenAI Plans to Raise $30 Billion, Valuation Reaches $1.4 Trillion

Today's Key News:

OpenAI Plans to Raise $30 Billion, Valuation Reaches $1.4 Trillion, IPO Delayed Until After 2027

PCE Data Boost Fails to Sustain, BTC Pulls Back After Surge, 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Becomes Key Variable

Open Standard's USD Stablecoin OUSD Officially Launched, Deployed on Base, Ethereum, Solana, and Tempo Chains

U.S. Federal Trade Commission Launches Comprehensive Investigation into Anthropic, OpenAI, and Other Superintelligent Models

Hyperliquid Labs Plans to Unstake $320 Million in HYPE and Sell to Institutions via OTC

Swiss National Bank Committee Member Tschudin: Stablecoins Make Monetary Policy Transmission More Difficult

Bloomberg Terminal Launches Stablecoin Dashboard Provided by Allium, Function Code RWAS<GO>

Solv Protocol Responds to BTC+Redemption Controversy: Claims Mechanism is Normal, Assets are Safe

Regulation & Macro

After PCE, Goldman Sachs "Tears Up Report": No Longer Predicting Fed Rate Hike in October, Next Likely in December

Goldman Sachs has pushed back its prediction for the Fed's next rate hike from October to December, citing recent inflation data that was weaker than expected. The firm had previously anticipated a 25 basis point hike in October. Goldman believes that if subsequent inflation data continues to ease, the Fed may ultimately decide that no further hikes are necessary; however, if energy prices and demand push inflationary pressures back up, the policy path may still adjust.

Korea's Financial Commission Plans to Relax Tokenized Securities Scope: May Allow Traditional Securities Like Stocks and Bonds to Go on Chain

According to Yonhap News, the Financial Services Commission of Korea has announced a revision of subordinate regulations related to the institutionalization of security tokens, planning to expand the scope of tokenizable securities to include traditional securities such as stocks, bonds, and funds, and clarifying distributed ledger requirements. The revision proposes allowing issuers to become "issuer account management institutions," requiring a minimum capital of 40 billion KRW. A system for the circulation of security tokens is proposed to be established, with an annual net buying limit of 100 million KRW for ordinary investors at various OTC exchanges. The relevant regulations are expected to be officially implemented on February 4, 2027.

OpenAI, Google, and Four Other Companies Sign Voluntary AI Safety Agreement with the White House, Commit to External Audits

According to CoinDesk, OpenAI, Google, Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, and xAI signed the White House AI Safety Agreement on September 29, committing to monitor risks associated with cutting-edge models in cybersecurity, biosafety, and chemical threats, with internal teams checking and fixing issues, introducing independent external organizations to assess safety controls, and being supervised by an independent committee of the board. The agreement is voluntary and does not specify a deadline for implementation or penalties for breach, with audit firms chosen by the companies themselves.

Digital RMB Cross-Border Connectivity Cooperation Scope Steadily Expands

According to Xinhua News Agency, the International Operation Center for Digital RMB has reported that after the first batch of 26 financial institutions signed contracts, an additional 39 domestic and foreign financial institutions submitted applications by the end of September to directly participate in the "Digital Currency Bridge" cross-border settlement comprehensive service platform (CBETS). This year, the International Operation Center for Digital RMB has continuously optimized CBETS services, supporting bilateral connections with foreign monetary authorities' payment systems and legal digital currency systems, as well as allowing foreign financial institutions to connect directly.

Fed's Kashkari: Expects One More Rate Hike This Year, Another in 2027

Fed's Kashkari expects one more rate hike this year and another in 2027. He stated that the Fed's balance sheet works best at near-zero interest rates, and it is reasonable to re-examine the balance sheet strategy, expressing optimism about artificial intelligence while also considering related risks.

EU Asks Binance to Explain Why It Continues to Operate After Being Asked to Exit

According to the Financial Times, the EU is inquiring with Binance about why the platform continues to operate after being asked to cease related activities. EU regulators are concerned about Binance's operations under the relevant restrictions and have requested explanations regarding the continued provision of services.

Bank of England Governor Warns AI Could Trigger Financial Market Shock

Bank of England Governor Bailey warned that artificial intelligence could trigger shocks in financial markets, and the UK needs to be prepared for this. The Bank of England is "very closely" monitoring the massive funds being invested in AI. When asked if an AI bubble could burst, Bailey stated that asset prices might experience some degree of correction at some point in the future. He believes AI has enormous potential to enhance economic growth but also comes with significant risks. He also mentioned that AI could "accelerate the work of supporting the Monetary Policy Committee," but it will not make decisions for policymakers.

Project Updates

Binance Contracts to Launch CTUSDT U-Based Perpetual Contract

According to an official announcement, Binance will launch the CTUSDT perpetual contract on October 1, 2026, at 15:45 (UTC+8), with a maximum leverage of up to 20 times.

OKX to Launch QUANTUSDT Perpetual Contract

According to an official announcement, OKX will launch the QUANTUSDT perpetual contract on October 1, 2026, at 16:00 (UTC+8) on the web, app, and API. Quant Network builds programmable monetary infrastructure, utilizing Overledger and QuantNet to connect banks, blockchains, tokenized deposits, and traditional payment tracks, enabling value to flow automatically between networks and complete settlements.

Hut 8 Restarts Bidding for Poolin's Texas Bitcoin Mining Assets, Valued Up to $180 Million

According to TheEnergyMag, a bankruptcy court in New Jersey, USA, has approved the reopening of the bidding process for Poolin's Texas Bitcoin mining assets. Hut 8's affiliated company remains the benchmark buyer, with a total acquisition proposal value of up to $180 million, including $100 million payable at closing and up to $80 million in milestone payments related to future data center transactions, linked to data center development projects such as AI, high-performance computing, cloud computing, and hosting facilities. The public auction will be held on October 2, and other bidders must submit their offers by October 1.

Drift: Approximately $9.2 Million of the $295.4 Million Stolen Has Been Frozen, Still Awaiting Recovery

The Drift Foundation released an update on the recovery progress of the approximately $295.4 million stolen on April 1: Currently, about $9.2 million of the involved funds have been frozen, and recovery still requires law enforcement procedures. The stolen funds were cross-chain transferred to Ethereum, with approximately 130,259 ETH distributed across four wallets, of which about 107,165 ETH held in three wallets has not moved; another wallet transferred about 23,094 ETH to Tornado Cash on July 23. Mandiant identified the attacker as the North Korea-linked threat group UNC6862. Recovered funds will enter the DFX compensation pool, and a bounty program has been launched with Bybit, offering a 10% reward for successfully recovered funds.

Apple to Release Smart Home Hub on October 13, HomePod mini and New Apple TV to Update Simultaneously

According to Bloomberg, Apple plans to release a smart home hub codenamed J490 on October 13, featuring a square display of about 6 inches, which can be wall-mounted or placed on a desk, along with the first update of the HomePod mini since 2020 and the first new Apple TV since 2022. This will be the first major product test for new CEO John Ternus (who took office on September 1), with the new product focusing on showcasing the large model-based Siri AI assistant, supporting recognition of multiple family members and displaying personalized content.

Base Launches Cobalt Upgrade: Introduces Validity Transactions and Enhances B20 Token Standard

Coinbase's Layer 2 network Base announced the launch of its third network upgrade, Cobalt, in 2026, with Validity Transactions and B20-related enhancements deployed to the mainnet. Validity Transactions allow users to submit transactions containing valid conditions, keeping them private until the conditions are met, at which point they are automatically executed. Cobalt also includes three B20 enhancements: Composite Policies (combining whitelist and blacklist rules through OR/AND logic), Schedule Multiplier Updates (supporting advance scheduling of corporate actions like stock splits), and seizeWithMemo (authorizing administrators to reallocate holder balances through transfers and record notes).

Open Standard's USD Stablecoin OUSD Officially Launched, Deployed on Base, Ethereum, Solana, and Tempo Chains

The USD stablecoin OUSD, supported by over 100 companies including Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard, has officially launched and is deployed on Base, Ethereum, Solana, and Tempo chains. Companies can access it through channels like Visa and Stripe, and Coinbase will follow up on October 1, supporting free minting and redemption at a 1:1 USD ratio. OUSD is issued by Bridge, a subsidiary of Stripe, with reserves held by BlackRock, Lead Bank, and BNY Mellon. Visa, Stripe, BVNK, Coinbase, and Shopify have committed to mint approximately $1 billion OUSD in total.

Lido: MetaMask Staking Business Will Exit Operating Validator Nodes, Expected to Complete by October 7

Lido stated that MetaMask Staking is taking preventive measures after investigating an incident involving infrastructure breaches, exiting its Ethereum validator nodes operated within the Lido protocol. This operation may result in forfeiting some staking rewards and incurring downtime penalties. The validator nodes have begun the exit process, expected to be completed by October 7, 2026, at the latest. ETH is expected to gradually return to the protocol within about 45 days after the validator nodes complete the exit, withdrawal, and rejoining staking cycle. The staking business is non-custodial, and stETH holders do not need to take any action. Lido's diversified node operator system and temporary reserve fund of over 6,750 stETH aim to mitigate the impact.

Robinhood Executive Discusses Stock Token Mechanism: Users Hold Tokens, Robinhood Custodies Underlying Stocks

Johann Kerbrat, head of Robinhood's crypto business, stated during Korea Blockchain Week that the stock tokens traded on Robinhood correspond to real stock assets, rather than being mere derivatives based on price changes. For stock token products, Robinhood will actually purchase the corresponding company's stocks and custody them.

Investment and Financing News

OpenAI Plans to Raise $30 Billion, Valuation Reaches $1.4 Trillion, IPO Delayed Until After 2027

OpenAI is seeking to raise at least $30 billion in a new funding round, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion (excluding new capital), after postponing its IPO plan originally scheduled for 2026 to replenish its ammunition early. OpenAI's annualized revenue has surpassed $40 billion this summer, growing about 70% since July. The company recently launched a permanent AI agent called "Dots" and introduced a high-end subscription tier for $500 per month. Previously, OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round in March, with a post-investment valuation of approximately $852 billion. Competitor Anthropic has submitted an IPO prospectus, planning to invest about $518 billion in cloud computing and infrastructure after going public, with a potential valuation exceeding $2 trillion.

SoftBank Group has completed its third and final additional investment in OpenAI through the SoftBank Vision Fund 2, amounting to $10 billion, bringing the total additional investment to $30 billion. Following this round, SoftBank's total investment in OpenAI has reached $64.6 billion, with a stake of approximately 13%. The funds for this investment come from the foreign currency-denominated senior bonds announced by SoftBank on September 24.

AI Native Cloud Platform GMI Cloud Completes $668 Million Financing, NVIDIA Participates

According to Straitstimes, AI native cloud platform GMI Cloud has announced the completion of $668 million in financing, including $223 million in Series B equity financing and $445 million in credit financing, led by ARCHIV with participation from NVIDIA. The company claims its inference platform processes approximately 40 trillion tokens weekly, with clients including Fireworks, Nous Research, OpenRouter, and Trend Micro.

Views & Analysis

Analyst: Bitcoin Holders' Cost Structure Stable, Long-term Holders Have Unrealized Gains of 72%

Crypto analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin's current trading price is approximately $83,700, which is 14% higher than the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). Over the past week, the cost basis for short-term holders increased by 1.2% to $73,700, maintaining an unrealized profit of about 13.7%. The cost basis for long-term holders (LTH) decreased from $48,900 to $48,800, with the Bitcoin price exceeding it by approximately 72%. If the weekly change in the long-term holders' cost basis returns to zero, it may indicate that this metric is stabilizing.

PCE Data Boost Fails to Sustain, BTC Pulls Back After Rally, 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Becomes Key Variable

After the U.S. August PCE inflation data came in below expectations, Bitcoin briefly broke through $85,000, reaching a high of $85,500, but due to the high U.S. Treasury yield, the gains were subsequently reversed. As of Thursday's Asian session, Bitcoin was around $83,700, up 0.4% in 24 hours. HYPE rose about 3% to $89, DOGE increased nearly 2% to $0.1; SOL fell nearly 1% to $119. Analysts noted that the better-than-expected PCE cooling reduced the expectation of a rate hike in October, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained around 5.28%, and mere improvement in inflation data was insufficient to support Bitcoin above $85,000.

Analyst: Bitcoin's "Apparent Demand" Remains Negative, Weak Spot Demand May Limit Upside

Crypto analyst Darkfost indicated that Bitcoin's "apparent demand" is currently at -112,500 BTC, indicating that demand in the spot market remains insufficient. Compared to -207,000 BTC on September 20, there has been improvement, during which Bitcoin ETFs accumulated approximately 28,000 BTC. Darkfost pointed out that under the current circumstances, Bitcoin's price may experience a slight pullback to seek actual buying demand. The apparent demand metric is calculated by comparing the change in newly issued supply with the supply that has not moved for over a year.

Analysis: Long-term Rise in U.S. Treasury Yields May Intensify Competition for Funds

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated that the rise in long-term bond yields is intensifying competition for funds, with some investors tending to shift towards safer investments by buying U.S. Treasuries. With an initial yield of about 5.3%, if yields rise by 100 basis points, the total loss would be approximately 1.5%; if they fall by 100 basis points, the total return, including coupon income, could approach 13%.

Binance Co-CEO: Tokenized Stocks May Change Global Stock Market Access, Expected to Reach $349 Billion by 2030

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng stated that tokenization may change the way global investors access the stock market, but the process will not be instantaneous. According to data from Binance Research, the market size for tokenized stocks is expected to grow by 390% by 2026, but currently only accounts for 0.0029% of the global listed stock market, which is valued at $151.9 trillion. In the baseline scenario, the market size for tokenized stocks is expected to grow from the current approximately $4.43 billion to about $34.9 billion by 2030.

Analysis: Bitcoin May Welcome a More Accommodative Rate Environment, U.S. Inflation Cooling Eases Rate Hike Pressure

According to The Block, the U.S. August overall PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, lower than market expectations, reducing the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations for October, which may provide support for risk assets like Bitcoin. Brendan Ma, investment strategy director at the Arbitrum Foundation, stated that the 0.2% month-on-month increase in core PCE is a positive signal; Martin Lee, head of market insights at DWF Labs, noted that moderate inflation data may reduce the risk of another rate hike; however, U.S. Treasury yields remain a resistance for risk assets. Nexo Dispatch analysts pointed out that the number of altcoins flowing into exchanges over the past seven days has reached the highest level since October 2025.

Important Data

A Whale Withdraws 5,000 ETH from Binance After Five Months of Silence, Worth $13.43 Million

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale withdrew 5,000 ETH from Binance after five months of inactivity, worth $13.43 million.

An Institution That Cleared 172,500 ETH in Early September Withdraws 3.125 Million UNI from CEX

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, an institution that cleared 172,500 ETH in early September withdrew 3.125 million UNI from CEX between September 15 and September 22, with an average price of $7.7, worth $24.21 million.

Ethereum's Historical Return Rate in October: 6 Gains and 4 Losses Since 2016, Average Return Rate of 3.29%

According to Coinglass data, Ethereum has had 10 "October" performances since 2016, with 6 gains and 4 losses. The largest gain occurred in October 2021 (42.92%), and the largest loss was in October 2016 (16.83%). From 2016 to now, Ethereum's average return rate in October is 3.29%, with a median of 0.36%. Additionally, Ethereum's return rate in September 2026 reached 8.77%, the second highest historical return rate for September, only behind the 14.53% in September 2016.

An Address Accumulates 5,000 ETH Again, Worth $13.43 Million

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the address 0xE1A...c1691 has accumulated 5,000 ETH again, worth $13.43 million. This address previously made a trade of 6,899 ETH on March 3, ending with a loss of $195,000.

Ripple Unlocks 1 Billion XRP in One Go, Worth Approximately $1.49 Billion

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Ripple has unlocked a total of 1 billion XRP through 4 transactions from its escrow account, worth approximately $1.49 billion, involving 400 million, 300 million, 200 million, and 100 million XRP, all completed within minutes. Ripple typically releases XRP from escrow according to a preset schedule, and some of the released XRP may be used for ecosystem development, operational funds, and other purposes.

Bitcoin's Historical Return Rate in October: 10 Gains and 3 Losses Since 2013, Average Return Rate of 18.52%

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has had 13 "October" performances since 2013, with 10 gains and 3 losses. The largest gain occurred in October 2013 (60.79%), and the largest loss was in October 2014 (12.95%). From 2013 to now, Bitcoin's average return rate in October is 18.52%, with a median of 12.73%. Additionally, Bitcoin's return rate in September 2026 reached 6.33%, the second highest historical return rate for September, only behind the 7.29% in October 2024.

Micron Technology CFO: Plans to Increase Stock Buybacks Starting December 9, 2026

Micron Technology CFO Mark Murphy stated during the earnings call that the company generated $44 billion in operating cash flow and $33.2 billion in free cash flow in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, planning to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. The company intends to increase capital returns starting December 9, 2026, primarily through stock buybacks.

Morgan Stanley's Total Bitcoin Holdings Exceeds 10,000 BTC for the First Time, Worth Over $870 Million

According to Arkham monitoring, Morgan Stanley has continuously increased its Bitcoin holdings through its spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT, with its total Bitcoin holdings exceeding 10,000 BTC for the first time, reaching 10,436 BTC, worth approximately $875 million.

An Address "Bottom-Fished" Buying 1,486.37 ETH at Midnight, Currently at a Loss of $33,000

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, an address bought 1,486.37 ETH on-chain at a price of $2,710.23 at 3 AM, worth $4.028 million, currently at a loss of $33,000.

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