Justin Sun Becomes Pessimistic About Bitcoin

Justin Sun, the founder of the TRON network, has developed a more pessimistic view of Bitcoin, citing the dangers posed by artificial intelligence and quantum computing. He states that investors holding Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have not yet fully accounted for these threats in their pricing.

The main focus of this discussion is whether Bitcoin's cryptography can withstand the rapid advancements in quantum research and advanced artificial intelligence methods.

Why Is Bitcoin's Cryptography Facing New Pressures?

In an interview with William Joy, Justin Sun raised a notable point. He argued that advancements in artificial intelligence mathematics could allow classical computers to break current cryptography before achieving a full quantum breakthrough.

Sun said:

If you ask for my personal opinion, I currently have a somewhat more bearish outlook. The reason is simple: the evolution of AI algorithms and the QD issue. I believe it will be difficult for Bitcoin to navigate this situation without damage.

Currently, no machine is close to this capability, but research timelines have shortened. In March 2026, Google's Quantum AI division estimated that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break Bitcoin's cryptography, which is nearly 20 times lower than previous estimates.

Since then, Google has reported further advancements. On October 15, researchers successfully demonstrated Magic State Cultivation on their Willow chip, reducing error rates by about 40 times. This research, published in the scientific journal Science, achieved an accuracy of 99.99%.

Although the Willow chip has only 105 qubits, this result could help reduce the size of machines needed for cryptographic attacks. This achievement is significant as it addresses one of the main bottlenecks in quantum computing.

Can Quantum Advancements Undermine Bitcoin's Security?

A large portion of Bitcoins is at risk. The co-founder of the analytics firm Glassnode points out that 6.04 million Bitcoin units (approximately 31.2% of the mined supply) are held in addresses with visible public keys. Some analyses estimate this figure to be as high as 6.9 million Bitcoins. These visible keys are what theoretically make these coins vulnerable.

Sun further noted: As soon as quantum decryption (QD) or artificial intelligence arrives, these dormant assets will be hacked, and in the worst-case scenario, the market could witness heavy selling pressure of over 2 million Bitcoins. Given the very high degree of decentralization in Bitcoin, it will be very difficult for the user community and miners to reach a consensus to block, seize, or limit the circulation of these assets through a hard fork.

Coinbase, which holds a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply, released its technical considerations on October 13. The company urged the Bitcoin community to begin preparations well before any quantum computers related to cryptography emerge.

Consensus changes and ecosystem migration could take years. Options like flexible output types and phased hybrid protection are already becoming important.

Sun's recent statements fuel ongoing discussions among institutions and developers about whether markets are ignoring the long-term risks of cryptography. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to be traded primarily based on other factors.

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