Something strange is happening with Bitcoin. It is neither digital gold nor a tech company for Wall Street

The correlation of Bitcoin with the American technology index Nasdaq has dropped to -0.61, the lowest since (at least) 2016. The correlation with gold currently stands at -0.67, and with the dollar index: -0.31. This is according to a chart published on Monday by James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk. At first glance, Bitcoin seems to be following its own path: it no longer resembles either stocks or precious metals. The problem is that the narrative diverges when analyzing data from the last few weeks, and unfortunately for those holding the cryptocurrency. More on this below.

Bitcoin walks its own path like a cat

Van Straten calculates the correlation from the last 20 monthly closes, roughly since the spring of 2025. The coefficient ranges from -1 to 1. A value of one means that two assets move in perfect harmony (one could say "hand in hand"), while minus one means they always move in opposite directions. A negative result tells us that during the analyzed period, Bitcoin was trending downwards while Nasdaq and gold were moving upwards.

And indeed, this was the case. Bitcoin set a record of about $126,000 on October 6, 2025, while today it costs around $74,000, which is over 40% cheaper. Nasdaq was still hitting new records in October of this year. Gold reached nearly $5,600 per ounce at the end of January, and despite a subsequent price drop, it is still significantly more expensive than it was a year and a half ago.

On the same chart, the correlation with Nasdaq has typically remained between 0.5 and 0.9 over the years, with the previous low around -0.35 occurring in 2019. The correlation with gold was already poor at the beginning of 2022, so it is difficult to speak of a record here for now.

source: James van Straten, X

BTC price falls with the stock market, but does not rise

A completely different picture is shown by the correlation of daily price fluctuations. According to analysts at K33 Research, the 30-day correlation of Bitcoin with Nasdaq reached 0.75 last Thursday. It has only been higher in one out of every hundred readings since 2020. Experts from Glassnode, on the other hand, reported a correlation with the S&P 500 index of exactly 0.80.

The mentioned Thursday was the worst session on Wall Street since April 2025. The Nasdaq 100 lost 6.4% in value, while Bitcoin fell by 5.3%. Macro analyst Alex Krüger pointed out that this was only the second such case in history. The first occurred on March 16, 2020, at the peak of pandemic panic.

The problem becomes evident during rebounds. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite index gained 1.1% in value, while Bitcoin closed the day at its lowest in a month. On Monday, the index gained 2.74%, the strongest since April, and the Nasdaq 100 even by 3.3%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained stagnant throughout the day, fluctuating between $74,100 and $74,500.

The fact that Bitcoin is falling along with the stock market is nothing new. Calculations based on FRED data, from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, show that in the year leading up to early September, during days when the S&P 500 fell, Bitcoin lost value in 76 out of 115 cases. When the index dropped by more than 1%, the cryptocurrency fell in 22 out of 25 sessions.

Thus, both measures tell us the truth, but about different things. The daily correlation captures the direction of movements from session to session, while the monthly price correlation shows the trend. Bitcoin falls with stocks but does not recover losses afterward, so in the long term, its chart completely diverges from that of Nasdaq.

Digital gold only for one summer

As recently as the end of August, Grayscale, one of the largest cryptocurrency fund managers, calculated that the 90-day correlation of Bitcoin with gold had exceeded 50%, although at the beginning of the year it was still close to zero. The relationship with Nasdaq 100 weakened during this time from over 60% to about 33%. The head of the analysis department, Zach Pandl, spoke at that time about a "regime change" and the return of the so-called debasement trade, meaning investors fleeing from currency devaluation to assets that can help prevent it.

However, the new regime did not survive the autumn. On November 5, when Nasdaq plunged, gold rose by about 1%, while Bitcoin fell along with stocks.

Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 index has gained 10.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen 8.7%. Despite a rebound on Monday to about $4,100, gold is still several percent below the line and over a quarter below the January record. Bitcoin has lost about 15% this year and is performing the worst among the four assets.

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