Arthur Hayes Warns of Dilution Risks for AI Giants After IPOs

Arthur Hayes published an article titled "D is for Dilution," warning that SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may face significant share unlock and dilution pressures after going public, which could depress stock prices, weaken their ability to raise funds, and transmit risks throughout the entire AI industry chain via credit markets. Hayes estimates that SpaceX could add approximately 8.6 billion shares to its float by June 2027, representing an increase of about 50% in share supply; initial investors in Anthropic's IPO may face dilution of up to 83% during the same period. Hayes believes that the continued weakness in AI giants' stock prices could prompt bond investors to demand higher yields, leading to increased corporate financing costs and even triggering a contraction in AI-related credit markets. Banks are deeply involved in the AI investment cycle through loans, securities financing, and proprietary trading. If AI financing demand cools, the expansion of bank balance sheets may also slow down or even contract, thereby reducing dollar liquidity and putting pressure on Bitcoin and the crypto market. Hayes also stated that if the AI bubble triggers a financial crisis, major global central banks and fiscal authorities will provide relief through monetary expansion and liquidity provision, potentially leading to renewed upward momentum for Bitcoin and crypto assets due to the influx of new liquidity.

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