10-Year Yield Breaks 5%| WEEX TradFi Daily(September 29, 2026)

Opening Summary

1. On September 28, the three major equity indexes closed lower as the 10-year yield broke above 5%.
2. Anthropic’s filing shows high growth alongside large losses; its tokenized share last traded near $2,002, down about 2% in 24 hours.
3. Bitcoin traded near $83,500; MARSCOIN rose about 30% in 24 hours and HBAR led a rotation into mid-cap chains.
4. Spot gold slipped to about $4,118, near a two-month low.
5. September 30 brings PCE and the third estimate of GDP.

1、Crypto Market Highlights

1）Bitcoin Near $83,500 as Rate Pricing Caps Risk Appetite
Bitcoin traded near $83,500, down from recent highs; Ethereum was around $2,685. A 10-year yield above 5% and a stronger dollar pressured crypto as a long-duration risk asset. Bitcoin has pulled back from about $87,000. Near term, watch whether bond yields and ETF flows can offset selling pressure.
Watchlist: BTC, ETH
Spot: BTC / ETH
Futures: BTC / ETH

2）MARSCOIN Rises About 30% in 24 Hours as Traders Lean Into a Q4 Narrative
MARSCOIN rose nearly 30% over 24 hours. Trader Bonk Guy described the technical setup as clean, citing narratives around Musk, CZ and SPCX, alongside a Binance rewards program directing part of its fees to related incentives. The market may be underpricing Q4 upside. The thesis depends on celebrity and exchange incentives, leaving volatility elevated.
Watchlist: MARSCOIN
Spot: MARSCOIN
Futures: MARSCOIN

3）WEEX Lists Doppler Finance (XDP), Raising Trading and Liquidity Expectations
WEEX recently listed Doppler Finance (XDP). The project is building tokenized capital-market infrastructure for yield, collateral and RWA, starting with XRPfi and expanding to Base. It has raised $5.5 million and reports $140 million in TVL. New listings can draw short-term turnover and speculative demand, while price action remains sensitive to opening depth and unlocks. Watch for real usage and sustained trading rather than a first-day premium.
Watchlist: XDP
Spot: XDP

4）HBAR Leads as Capital Rotates While Majors Consolidate
Hedera (HBAR) rose more than 25% in 24 hours. With major tokens moving sideways, capital rotated into mid-cap chains tied to settlement and cross-chain narratives. The move is event- and volume-driven and could fade quickly if bond-market conditions tighten further.
Watchlist: HBAR
Spot: HBAR
Futures: HBAR

2、Market Highlights

1）Major Indexes Fall on September 28 as Rate-Sensitive Growth Stocks Weaken
All three major equity indexes closed lower on September 28. Rising yields and questions over AI capex prompted investors to reduce long-duration exposure. The index moves are backward-looking; the key pricing anchor is whether upcoming jobs and PCE data reinforce a “higher for longer” rate outlook.
Watchlist: SPY, QQQ, IWM
Spot: SPY / QQQ / IWM
Futures: SPY / QQQ / IWM

2）10-Year Yield Breaks 5%, Reshaping the Stock-Bond Trade-Off
The 10-year government bond yield broke above 5%, exceeding the S&P 500 earnings yield measured as the inverse of its P/E ratio. Bonds’ relative appeal versus stocks reached a roughly 25-year high. Shiller’s excess CAPE model points to only about 1% in annual excess returns for stocks versus bonds over the next decade. Higher yields reflect economic resilience but also raise the bar for valuations and earnings.
Watchlist: TLT, SPY
Spot: TLT / SPY
Futures: TLT / SPY

3）Anthropic Filing Shows Growth Alongside Huge Cloud Commitments
Anthropic’s filing showed 2025 revenue of $4.59 billion, up about 12-fold year over year, while its operating loss widened from $2.98 billion to $8.06 billion. Operating expenses reached $12.65 billion last year, and cloud and compute commitments over the coming years total $518 billion. Its tokenized share fell about 2% in 24 hours to around $2,002.03. Investors are reassessing whether AI monetization can cover infrastructure spending.
Watchlist: ANTHROPIC
Futures: ANTHROPIC (Pre-Market)

4）Semiconductors and Optical Communications Mostly Retreat as Compute Trades Unwind
Arm fell 8.70%, Qualcomm 7.17%, Intel 5.67%, Marvell 3.83% and AMD 3.61%, while NVIDIA rose 1.68% against the broader move. In memory, SK Hynix fell 5.03%, SanDisk 3.65% and Micron 2.62%. In optical communications, Credo dropped 8.67%, while Coherent and AAOI each fell about 4.52%. Higher rates lifted discount rates, prompting profit-taking in earlier compute-chain winners.
Watchlist: DRAM, SMH, SOXL
Spot: DRAM / SMH / SOXL
Futures: DRAM / SMH / SOXL

5）Spot Gold Slips to About $4,118, Near a Two-Month Low
Spot gold traded near $4,118, with its intraday decline approaching the lowest level since August. A 10-year yield above 5% and a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. The next move depends on whether PCE and labor data reverse rate-hike pricing.
Watchlist: GOLD (PAXG)
Spot: PAXG (gold-backed asset)
Futures: GOLD(PAXG)USDT

3、Today’s Preview

JOLTS, consumer confidence, PCE and the GDP third estimate are due September 29–30. Investors will focus on labor demand, inflation persistence and the 10-year yield.

1）PCE and Q2 GDP Third Estimate — September 30, 08:30 ET (20:30 UTC+8)
Consensus expects August PCE inflation of about 3.7% year over year and core PCE of about 3.3%. The release will also provide the final, third estimate of Q2 GDP. The data could determine whether the 10-year yield holds above 5% and shape rate-path pricing for Q4.
Watchlist: SPY, QQQ
Spot: SPY / QQQ
Futures: SPY / QQQ

2）The AI Conference 2026
The conference focuses on agentic AI, open-source model ecosystems and production deployment across five core tracks. Its takeaways will test whether application-layer AI companies can build profitable business models and may influence Q4 and 2027 private-market valuations for AI infrastructure and SaaS.
Watchlist: NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT
Spot: NVDA / GOOGL / MSFT
Futures: NVDA / GOOGL / MSFT

4、Trade Global Markets on WEEX

WEEX offers stock spot products and USDT-margined stock futures, making it easier to track global market themes from one platform.
Trade Now: https://www.weex.com/markets/spot-pro?tab=Stocks
WEEX TradFi covers stocks, commodities, forex and indexes, making it easier to follow cross-market themes in one account.
Explore TradFi: https://www.weex.com/markets/tradFi

5、WEEX Proof of Reserves

WEEX provides a proof-of-reserves page for users to review reserve and asset-backing information.
View WEEX Proof of Reserves: https://www.weex.com/proof-of-reserves