Bitcoin After Hot CPI: Why December Rate Hike Odds Hit 85%

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $72,787 on November 10, 2026, after October's consumer price index came in hotter than expected, and traders sharply raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Headline CPI rose 0.4% for the month against a 0.3% forecast, and core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2%. Prediction-market odds of a 25-basis-point December hike climbed to about 85% from 77% before the release. As of 07:20 UTC on November 11, bitcoin was trading near $73,631 on WEEX. This article explains why one inflation print moved bitcoin this much, what the Fed is now signaling, which price levels traders are watching, and what could change the picture before the December meeting.

What the October CPI Report Showed

The October report, released on November 10, beat forecasts on both the headline and core measures:

• Headline CPI: up 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected. That was down from September's 0.6%.
• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): up 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected.
• Energy: the energy index rose 0.7% in October, after a 5.2% jump in September.

The detail that matters most is core. Energy cooled sharply from September, which brought the headline number down, but core inflation did not slow. That is the measure the Fed watches for persistent price pressure, and it is the measure Fed officials had named as their trigger.

Bond markets moved first. The two-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.73%, and the 10-year approached 5%, per KuCoin's November 11 market report. Higher yields make holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin more expensive, which is why crypto reacted within minutes.

Why a December Fed Rate Hike Now Looks Likely

The CPI print matters because Fed officials told markets in advance what they would do with it.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a 25-basis-point hike in December and could back a 50-basis-point move if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. October's core print landed right on that 0.3% line. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reportedly sees at least two more quarter-point hikes ahead.

That is why the market repriced so quickly. Prediction-market odds of a 25-basis-point December hike jumped to about 85% after the release, from 77% before it, according to Bitcoin.com News, with CME FedWatch showing similar odds. A hike is now the base case, not the risk scenario. The open question is size: if markets start pricing a 50-basis-point move, that would be the more damaging surprise for crypto.

How Bitcoin and Crypto Reacted to the Hot CPI

The selling was fast and leveraged.

• Bitcoin: hit an intraday low of $72,787 on Bitstamp shortly after the release, and was near $73,800 at 00:00 UTC on November 11, down about 2% on the day.
• Ether: dropped about 3.8% to roughly $2,053.
• Liquidations: more than $632 million of crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, $511 million of them longs, per Coinglass data reported by Bitcoin.com News. Bitcoin accounted for more than $169 million and ether for just under $240 million.
• Sentiment: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped to 29 from 32.

Fund flows were already weak before the print. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $201 million of net outflows on November 9 and spot ether ETFs about $185 million, the third straight day of outflows for both. The inflation data hit a market that had little fresh buying to absorb it.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch After CPI

Analysts have converged on a narrow band of levels. As of 07:20 UTC on November 11, bitcoin was near $73,631 on the WEEX Bitcoin price page, with a 24-hour high near $74,900.

Support

• About $73,200: the 200-day moving average, flagged by Bitget's Lewis Huang as the key level.
• $73,000: a zone that lines up with the 2024 pre-election high and April 2025 lows.
• $69,000 to $70,000: the next downside target if $73,000 breaks on a daily close, per 21Shares' Matt Mena, close to the 2021 cycle high.

Resistance

• $74,500 to $75,000: the zone bitcoin needs to reclaim for a sustained recovery.
• $78,000: the next retest level if the recovery holds.

The more important point is how bitcoin tests these levels. A slow drift toward $73,000 with falling open interest would mean leverage is being cleared out. Another fast wick lower with heavy long liquidations, like November 10, would suggest traders are still rebuilding leverage into a hawkish Fed. For context on the previous leg down, see our earlier breakdown of why bitcoin dropped to $76,000.

What Could Change the Outlook Before the December Fed Meeting

A hike is largely priced in. What moves bitcoin from here is new information that shifts the size or the path of rate increases. The calendar for the next few days:

1. November 12: weekly jobless claims. A jump in claims would support the case against a 50-basis-point hike.
2. November 13: October PPI. A hot producer-price print would reinforce the inflation story.
3. November 14: remarks from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. Any pushback on a larger hike would matter.
4. ETF flows: three days of outflows need to stop before a recovery can hold.

What traders usually miss is that macro-driven sell-offs do not need bad crypto news to continue. On the BTC/USDT perpetual futures market on WEEX, macro data releases are when funding flips and liquidations cluster. Sizing positions for a 3% to 5% swing on release days matters more than calling direction.

FAQ

1. Why did bitcoin fall after the CPI report?

October CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI 0.3%, both above forecasts. That raised the odds of a December Fed rate hike to about 85%, pushed Treasury yields higher, and triggered more than $632 million of crypto liquidations.

2. Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?

Markets now treat a 25-basis-point hike as likely. Governor Waller said he would support one and could back 50 basis points if core CPI ran around 0.3%, which is where October landed. The decision is not final until the meeting.

3. What is the key support level for bitcoin now?

Analysts are watching about $73,200, the 200-day moving average, and $73,000. A daily close below $73,000 could open a move toward $69,000 to $70,000.

4. What data could move bitcoin next?

Jobless claims on November 12, October PPI on November 13, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's remarks on November 14, and daily spot ETF flows.