US Treasury Doubles Buybacks, Markets Remain Cautious
Washington is buying back its own debt. The U.S. Treasury has at least doubled the maximum size of its buyback operations on long-term bonds. Since September 9, the ceiling applied to maturities between ten and thirty years has increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Scott Bessent even reserves the possibility of going further.
The official goal is to improve the liquidity of a pressured market. However, these buybacks can also support the price of the affected bonds and weigh on their yields. Bitcoin investors therefore see a possible easing of financial conditions, even though the operation remains very different from a Federal Reserve purchase program.
Key Points
- The U.S. Treasury has at least doubled its buybacks of long-term bonds, financed by the issuance of short-term bills.
- The program officially aims at market liquidity, with no declared objective of capping yields.
- The buybacks must be offset by new issuances, but their exclusive financing through short-term bills is not established.
- The GENIUS Act could strengthen demand for short debt due to stablecoin reserves.
U.S. Treasury Increases Long Bond Buybacks
During a buyback, the Treasury repurchases bonds already held by investors before their maturity. This operation can facilitate trading on older issues, which are sometimes less liquid than recently issued securities.
The program has existed since May 2024. Initially, the Treasury planned up to $30 billion in quarterly buybacks aimed at supporting liquidity, along with cash management operations. In August 2026, it raised the ceiling applicable to each intervention on long maturities by at least $2 to $4 billion. The first expanded operation ultimately had a ceiling of $6 billion and allowed for the repurchase of $5.19 billion in securities.
However, this increase does not guarantee a sustained decrease in yields. The U.S. thirty-year rate reached 5.19% on the day of the announcement, then 5.37% during the first enhanced operation. The market quickly absorbed the signal sent by Washington.
Scott Bessent explained that the Treasury wanted to << make a market >> on these bonds and show that it considered yields excessive in light of fundamentals. In contrast, his phrase << I am the house now >> referred to an intervention on the yen and his knowledge of Japanese decisions. Directly linking it to debt buybacks would be misleading.
 ![The U.S. Treasury has at least doubled the maximum size of its buyback operations on long-term bonds. Since September 9, the ceiling applied to maturities between ten and thirty years has increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Scott Bessent even reserves the possibility of going further.
The official objective is to improve the liquidity of a pressured market. However, these buybacks can also support the price of the affected bonds and weigh on their yields. Bitcoin investors therefore see this as a possible easing of financial conditions, even if the operation remains very different from a Federal Reserve purchase program.
Bitcoin and Stablecoins: A Softening Not to Be Confused with QE
The Treasury reminds that every dollar spent on buybacks must, all else being equal, be offset by a dollar of new debt. However, there is no mechanism that requires each long bond withdrawn to be directly replaced by a short-term note.
The comparison with monetary easing (the famous QE) comes rather from the general composition of the issuances. In 2024, Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini estimated that increased reliance on short notes reduced the ten-year yield by about 25 basis points, which is an economic effect comparable to a 100 basis point cut in the Fed rate.
This contested estimate concerned the entire issuance policy and not the current buybacks, as can be read in Craig Tindale's short essay. The Fed has also been buying Treasury notes since December 2025, after having halted the reduction of its balance sheet. However, it presents these purchases as reserve management operations, not as a new QE program aimed at stimulating the economy.
Stablecoins can, for their part, support the demand for short debt. The GENIUS Act notably allows their issuers to hold Treasury securities with a remaining maturity of no more than 93 days. Reserves may also include cash, bank deposits, and certain monetary products. The system is set to come into effect in January 2027.
Tether already reported about 141 billion dollars of direct and indirect exposure to Treasury notes at the end of March 2026. An increase in stablecoins would likely strengthen this demand, without their reserves directly financing each buyback of long bonds.
For Bitcoin, the mechanism remains indirect: a decrease in long yields would reduce the yield offered by bond investments and could favor risky assets. At this stage, however, U.S. rates have continued to rise despite the buybacks. Washington has strengthened its tool but has not imposed a ceiling on the market. This is a matter to follow (very closely).
-- Price
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