Trump Prepares for Possible Escalation of Military Actions Against Iran After U.S.-Israel Elections

On October 24, the United States is increasing deployments in preparation for a possible resumption of military strikes against Iran. Trump has repeatedly hinted that U.S. forces may resume strikes against Iran after the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, and has dispatched a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf to provide commanders with more options for action, although the exact timing remains uncertain.

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper visited Israel this week without prior announcement and met with Netanyahu. Israel is holding elections on October 27. Meanwhile, following the Iran-backed Houthi forces expanding the conflict to Saudi Arabia by attacking airports and energy facilities, the U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of some diplomatic personnel and their families from Saudi Arabia.

A source familiar with Iran's thinking indicated that Iran is preparing for a new round of bombings that may occur before and after the U.S. midterm elections, planning retaliatory actions in the Middle East, including against Israel and the UAE. This source believes that the period from the end of the U.S. elections until the new Congress is sworn in in January will be the most challenging phase, with a way forward being to reach an agreement that allows both sides to claim victory. Some officials from Gulf countries are concerned that the intensity of renewed hostilities may exceed that before the pause.

Recent diplomatic attempts to end the conflict have failed to yield results. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated this week that if there is sufficient evidence that the U.S. genuinely seeks a fair, dignified, and permanent resolution to end the conflict, Iran is willing to give diplomacy another chance, but he also noted that there is currently not much reason to expect progress.

The conflict has disrupted energy transportation in the Persian Gulf, pushing Brent crude oil prices up more than 80% this year and increasing U.S. gasoline prices and living costs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 showed that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, and about half of respondents expect the war to continue for more than a year. Reports indicate that concerns over military escalation are once again driving up oil prices and affecting the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.

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