The migration from gold to Bitcoin will take decades

In episode 53 of Separating Money and State, Juan Rodríguez analyzes the usefulness of on-chain analysis for medium and long-term investors, although he points out that custody on platforms like Coinbase limits visibility. He explains that the derivatives market is 8 to 10 times the size of the spot market and influences option prices. Rodríguez anticipates minor declines in the future and rejects the supercycle theory, suggesting that Bitcoin's transition will be similar to that of gold. He acknowledges that artificial intelligence has overshadowed Bitcoin in the headlines and that many believe they need $80,000 to invest, unaware that they can buy fractions. He estimates that between 4% and 5% of the global population has exposure to Bitcoin, projecting an increase to 30% or 40% in two decades. He recalls that cypherpunks sought an internet cash independent of bureaucrats. He highlights that on-chain analysis allowed him to foresee the end of the bear phase earlier than usual. With only 450 bitcoins daily for miners, the new issuance has less impact on the price than other markets. Rodríguez challenges gold, stating that one bitcoin can be sent over the internet, while a bar cannot. He believes that the migration from gold to Bitcoin will take decades due to the distrust of older generations towards intangible assets.

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